“保楼市”还是“保孩子”？国家动真格，向生娃方向“出手”了

Core Viewpoint - China is facing dual challenges of declining birth rates and falling housing prices, which are interconnected and pose significant concerns for the country's economic and social development [1][2]. Group 1: Birth Rate Decline - In 2023, the number of newborns in China reached a historical low of 9.02 million, a nearly 50% decrease from 17.58 million in 2017 [1]. - The high cost of housing is widely regarded as a major factor contributing to the declining birth rate, with the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities dropping to 14,653 yuan per square meter in July 2024, marking a 27-month consecutive decline [1]. - The marriage rate has also dropped significantly, with only 3.43 million couples registering for marriage in the first half of the year, a decrease of 498,000 compared to the previous year [1]. Group 2: Government Response - The Chinese government is seeking a balance between stabilizing the housing market and promoting higher birth rates, recognizing that both are crucial for short-term economic stability and long-term national development [2]. - Since 2016, the government has implemented extensive regulations on the real estate market, with 650 regulatory actions taken in 2021 alone, leading to a turning point in the market [2]. - Measures to alleviate housing market pressure include relaxing purchase and loan restrictions, reducing mortgage rates to historical lows, and lowering down payment ratios from 30% to 20% [2]. Group 3: Housing and Marriage Initiatives - The government plans to construct 6 million affordable housing units over the next five years, averaging 1.2 million units annually, to meet the housing needs of low-income urban families [2]. - The construction of affordable housing is expected to ease housing pressure for low-income families, creating a more favorable environment for marriage and childbirth [2]. - Recent amendments to marriage registration regulations have removed the requirement for a household registration book, allowing couples to register for marriage with just their ID cards, thereby lowering the barriers to marriage [4]. Group 4: Long-term Strategy - The Chinese government is employing multiple strategies to balance the housing market and birth rate, aiming for sustainable development through reduced housing pressure, increased affordable housing supply, and simplified marriage registration processes [6]. - This approach is seen as a long-term battle that requires collaboration among the government, society, and individuals to address the challenges posed by demographic changes [6].