美元储备地位动摇？鲍威尔表态背后的隐忧

Core Viewpoint - Recent negative economic data from the United States has intensified expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to a decline in the US dollar's value and raising concerns about its status as the global reserve currency [1][2]. Economic Data Summary - In May, the core PCE price index slightly exceeded expectations with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, while consumer spending fell by 0.3%, marking the largest decline since the beginning of the year [1]. - The final GDP for Q1 and new home sales data released on June 25 were disappointing, further fueling rate cut expectations [1]. - Market data indicates a 27% probability for a rate cut in July and an 84% probability for September [1]. Dollar Performance Summary - The US dollar index has fallen for five consecutive trading days, dropping below the 97 mark, reaching its lowest point since March 2022 [1]. - Year-to-date, the dollar has depreciated by 10.34%, with a 4.59% decline in the last two months [1]. Factors Influencing Dollar Decline - The strong performance of the euro has exerted direct pressure on the dollar, as the euro accounts for over 60% of the dollar index [1]. - A historic agreement among NATO members to significantly increase defense spending has injected new vitality into the European economy, further supporting the euro's appreciation [1]. Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been cautious about rate cuts, citing concerns over inflation pressures from trade wars, and has not provided clear guidance to investors [2]. - Powell's recent comments during a congressional hearing suggested a potential openness to rate cuts, but his statements remain ambiguous [2]. Political Pressure - Former President Trump has expressed strong dissatisfaction with Powell's reluctance to cut rates, arguing that the lack of action has negatively impacted the US economy and contributed to the dollar's decline [4]. - The conflicting economic data in the US has created uncertainty for investors regarding the future value of the dollar, exacerbating its downward trend [4]. Concerns Over Dollar's Reserve Status - Powell defended the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency during congressional hearings, asserting its continued strength as the world's largest reserve currency [4]. - Despite his confidence, there are underlying concerns reflected in his statements regarding the sustainability of US federal debt and the potential impact of the "Big Beautiful Bill" on the dollar's reserve currency status [5].