邓正红能源软实力：原油基本面支撑与政策利空对冲 夏季需求指数成为新锚点

Core Insights - The oil market is currently in a delicate balance, supported by U.S. economic resilience and seasonal driving demand, while OPEC's potential production increase poses a downside risk [1][2] - The upcoming OPEC meeting on July 6 is critical, as a decision to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day could test the cost baseline for shale oil producers and trigger a new round of value reassessment [1][2] Demand-Side Factors - U.S. economic resilience is reflected in a strong stock market, which boosts energy consumption confidence; May's non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, alleviating demand concerns [2] - The weakening U.S. dollar enhances the attractiveness of oil priced in dollars, reinforcing its financial value [2] - The onset of the summer driving season is driving gasoline consumption, with U.S. crude and fuel inventories declining for five consecutive weeks, highlighting supply-side scarcity [2] Supply-Side Factors - OPEC's production increase expectations are exerting continuous pressure on oil prices, with a potential increase of 410,000 barrels per day in August, leading to a total potential supply increase of 1.64 million barrels [3] - Saudi Arabia's "boiling frog" strategy aims to gradually increase production to capture market share without causing panic, showcasing the art of capacity control [3] - Internal strategic divergences within OPEC are becoming evident, with countries like Russia and Algeria advocating for a pause in production increases to assess impacts [3] Geopolitical Context - The reduction of geopolitical risk premiums has allowed oil prices to almost completely revert to fundamental-driven levels, shifting market focus back to supply and demand dynamics [3] - The outcome of the July 6 OPEC meeting will be crucial in determining whether Saudi Arabia maintains its "limited production increase" strategy or shifts to a full-scale price war [3] - The summer demand index will serve as a new benchmark, with refinery operating rates and inventory consumption rates validating demand resilience against supply increases [3]