美国袭击伊朗，美元和美债都得救了？7月美元降息概率上升

Group 1 - The U.S. military action against Iran's nuclear facilities is perceived as a response to domestic economic challenges, particularly the difficulty in selling government bonds and the pressure on the dollar [1][8][41] - The Trump administration's "America First" policy has led to trade restrictions and tariffs, causing uncertainty among global investment institutions, which typically prefer stable markets [5][6][10] - Following the attack on Iran, the yield on U.S. ten-year bonds decreased, indicating a temporary restoration of confidence in government bonds, although the underlying issues of excessive spending and debt remain unresolved [12][14][41] Group 2 - The potential for rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could lead to increased inflationary pressures in the U.S., complicating the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts [24][39] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: while there are reasons to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, rising oil prices could reignite inflation, making it cautious about any rate cuts [27][31][39] - The outcome of the U.S. actions in Iran and the subsequent oil market reactions will significantly influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions in July [37][41]