Here's Why Tesla Stock Is a Buy Before the End of July

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is expected to release its second-quarter earnings in late July, with potential volatility in its stock price due to recent developments, including the robotaxi launch, which may serve as a positive catalyst for the company [1] Delivery Data - Tesla typically releases its production and delivery data shortly after the quarter ends, which is crucial as these figures represent its sales volumes [2] - Unlike traditional automakers, Tesla sells directly to consumers, making its delivery data a direct reflection of sales [2] Market Share Trends - Tesla's market share in the electric vehicle (EV) sector has been declining, from 58% at the end of 2022 to 43.5% in Q1 2025 [4] - Early sales data from the U.S. and Europe indicates that Tesla may need a strong sales month in June to meet analyst estimates [5] Competitive Landscape - Bears argue that Tesla's declining market share is due to a stagnant vehicle lineup and concerns over losing competitive edge [7] - Bulls attribute the decline to competitors' heavy investments and emphasize that Tesla's long-term success hinges on reducing vehicle costs to boost sales and develop its robotaxi business [8] Production and Sales Growth - Tesla's automotive sales dropped by 20% year-over-year in Q1, raising concerns about the need for production growth to lower unit costs [9] - Lower-cost vehicles are essential for the robotaxi business model, with plans for the Cybercab to begin volume production in 2026 [11] Potential Catalysts - Three key points Tesla's management could address in the earnings call that may positively impact the stock include: 1. Confirmation of the Cybercab's production timeline for 2026 [12] 2. Details on the expansion of the robotaxi pilot program [12] 3. Assurance of the introduction of lower-cost models in 2025, which could revitalize sales [11][12] Investment Perspective - Tesla remains a speculative growth stock, with the potential for a narrative shift in its EV sales and market share contingent on the successful introduction of lower-cost models [14]