摩根大通：2025年炼金术士放眼市场展望报告

Group 1: Artificial Intelligence - Artificial intelligence is viewed as a "golden goose," significantly contributing to the returns of major US stocks like Apple and Microsoft, with profit growth rates far exceeding other stocks, driving the S&P 500 index to rise over 20% for two consecutive years [2] - Companies like Nvidia dominate the AI infrastructure sector, with data center investments surging, and their data center revenue share expected to approach historical peaks by 2026 [2] - However, the high costs of training AI models and the risk of over-investment pose challenges, as evidenced by the performance of Corning's fiber optics business post-dot-com bubble [2] Group 2: Nuclear Energy - Investor optimism about nuclear power has led to stock price increases, supported by new US legislation aimed at accelerating nuclear development, such as the Advance Act which simplifies approval processes [3] - Despite this, significant cost overruns in nuclear projects, exemplified by the delays and instability of the Vogtle 3 nuclear plant in Georgia, raise concerns about the sector's viability [3] - The potential of small modular reactors remains unproven, with no such projects expected to commence in the US by 2025, and new nuclear designs still facing commercialization hurdles [3] Group 3: US Policy - The "Alchemist" policy includes regulatory rollbacks, tariff adjustments, and tax cuts, which could enhance productivity but contrasts sharply with the Biden administration's regulatory increases [4] - Imposing a 60% tariff on China and implementing broad tariffs could hinder US GDP growth, with potential retaliatory measures from China exacerbating trade tensions [4] - Challenges in reducing government spending persist, as welfare expenditures are high and discretionary spending is at a low, complicating efforts to cut the budget [4] Group 4: China - China faces liquidity challenges, including declining money supply growth, reduced loan demand, and an underperforming real estate market [5] - The intensifying US-China competition, particularly in technology and trade, poses risks to the valuation ceiling of MSCI China stocks, especially with restrictions on advanced chip supplies to China [5] Group 5: Europe - Europe's labor productivity lags behind the US, with high energy prices suppressing manufacturing output, particularly in energy-intensive industries [6] - The Eurozone's "one-size-fits-all" policy struggles to accommodate the diverse needs of member states, leading to lower corporate profitability compared to the US [6] Group 6: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin's price rebound in 2024 is attributed to the US SEC's approval of spot ETFs, alongside a growing number of cryptocurrency account holders [7] - However, trading-centric tokens and decentralized finance activities remain highly speculative and closely tied to cryptocurrency price fluctuations, with US government support for the sector linked to political donations [7]