苯乙烯：6月26日收涨0.25%，后市或面临回落风险

Core Viewpoint - The styrene market is experiencing fluctuations in prices due to varying supply and demand dynamics, with a notable increase in inventory levels and production rates impacting market conditions [1] Group 1: Market Overview - On June 26, the main styrene contract rose by 0.25% to 7316 CNY/ton, with a basis of 659 CNY/ton, an increase of 77 CNY/ton from the previous value [1] - Brent crude oil closed at 64.9 USD/barrel, up by 0.5 USD/barrel, while WTI crude oil closed at 67.7 USD/barrel, an increase of 0.6 USD/barrel [1] - The overall inventory of styrene in sample factories increased to 189,000 tons, up by 4,000 tons, reflecting a 2.3% week-on-week accumulation [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Styrene production saw a week-on-week increase of 7.1%, reaching 362,000 tons, with a factory capacity utilization rate of 79.0%, up by 5.2% [1] - The return of styrene maintenance units is gradually improving supply, while the inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 14,000 tons, a 17.1% decline [1] Group 3: Demand Trends - The operating rates of downstream sectors showed mixed results, with EPS utilization at 53.6% (down 1.8%), ABS at 64.0% (down 0.1%), and PS at 58.7% (up 0.4%) [1] - Overall, demand for pure benzene has increased significantly compared to the previous week, despite a decline in phenol operating rates [1] Group 4: Price Movements - The styrene market experienced high volatility, with prices initially stabilizing before a significant drop; as of June 25, the average closing price in Jiangsu was 7850 CNY/ton, down by 155 CNY/ton (approximately 1.94% decrease) from the previous week [1] - The price decline is attributed to weakening cost factors and increased supply pressure, with expectations of a 3.12% production increase this week [1] Group 5: Future Outlook - Short-term price support is expected from the upcoming paper delivery, with prices likely to remain high; however, without new positive developments post-delivery, the market may shift towards a weaker supply-demand structure, posing risks for spot price declines [1]