美元汇率持续下滑，鲍威尔能否稳住美元储备地位？

Group 1 - Recent U.S. economic data has raised concerns, leading to increased expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - In May, the core PCE price index slightly exceeded expectations with a 0.2% month-over-month increase, but consumer spending unexpectedly fell by 0.3%, marking the largest decline since the beginning of the year [1] - Market data indicates a 27% probability for a rate cut in July and an 84% probability for a cut in September [1] Group 2 - The continuous decline of the U.S. dollar is influenced by the strong rise of the euro, which constitutes over 60% of the dollar index [2] - NATO's historic agreement to significantly increase defense spending has provided strong momentum to the European economy, further pushing the euro's appreciation [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance on rate cuts, due to concerns over inflation from trade wars, has also contributed to the pressure on the dollar [2] Group 3 - President Trump has expressed strong dissatisfaction with Powell's decisions regarding interest rates, arguing that the delay in cuts has negatively impacted the U.S. economy [4] - The complex and fluctuating U.S. economic data has created significant uncertainty regarding the future value of the dollar, exacerbating its decline [4] - Powell has defended the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency, asserting its continued strength despite underlying concerns about rising federal debt [4] Group 4 - The "Big Beautiful Bill" passed by the House is expected to significantly increase federal debt over the next decade, intensifying the U.S. debt crisis [5] - Powell has indicated that this legislation could pose a substantial threat to the dollar's status as a reserve currency [5]