港股大涨！还能买吗？最新研判

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to exhibit a "volatile upward + structural differentiation" pattern in the second half of the year [4][24]. - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong resilience in the first half of the year, driven by multiple factors including domestic monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and significant inflows of southbound capital exceeding 700 billion HKD [17][19]. - The overall valuation of the Hong Kong stock market remains attractive compared to other major markets, with the Hang Seng Index's forecasted P/E ratio for 2025 at 11 times and a dividend yield of 3.2% [21][22]. Group 2 - Investment opportunities in the second half of the year are expected to focus on technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and high-dividend assets, driven by policy support and technological advancements [27][30]. - The technology sector, particularly AI commercialization and capital expenditure expansion, is anticipated to drive earnings for internet giants, while the healthcare sector is expected to benefit from policy relaxations and international strategies [28][31]. - The consumption sector, including new consumer trends and brands, is also highlighted as having strong resilience and growth potential due to ongoing domestic consumption recovery [31][32]. Group 3 - The market is likely to experience a structural shift with a focus on high-quality growth companies, particularly in technology and innovative sectors, as well as low-valuation assets in cyclical industries [25][32]. - The overall market sentiment is expected to improve with continued inflows of southbound capital and a potential increase in foreign investment in Hong Kong stocks [24][25]. - The anticipated economic recovery and supportive macro policies are expected to further enhance the performance of the Hong Kong stock market in the latter half of the year [24][25].