全球货币变局下的人民币升值趋势

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate reflects the interaction between the Chinese economy and the global financial system, with the RMB appreciating due to a combination of factors including economic transformation and the weakening of the USD [1][3] - The RMB to USD exchange rate strengthened significantly, reaching a midpoint of 7.1620 on June 26, 2025, marking a new high since November 2024, while the CFETS RMB exchange rate index fell from 102.09 to 95.92, indicating a complex underlying logic [1][3] - The appreciation of the RMB is occurring against the backdrop of China's high-quality development strategy, with notable achievements in manufacturing upgrades and a significant increase in new energy vehicle exports, which grew over 70% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - The weakening of the USD is driven by the Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle, with market expectations for further rate cuts exceeding 80% as of June 2025 [3] - The acceleration of the global "de-dollarization" process is evident, with BRICS countries increasing the use of local currencies in trade, and central banks globally, including China, significantly increasing gold reserves [3][4] - China's economic fundamentals are robust, with GDP growth exceeding expectations and a notable recovery in consumer markets, as evidenced by 274 million domestic tourist trips during the May Day holiday, generating 148.056 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 12.8% [4]