Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-06-30 00:24Group 1 - The upcoming summer peak season for civil aviation in 2025 is prompting multiple airlines to launch new routes and explore diversified markets, indicating a focus on enhancing market consumption potential [1] - According to Minsheng Securities, domestic airline prices have improved since the beginning of the year, with off-season demand showing support, and strong performance in holiday air traffic likely to carry over into the summer peak season [1] - Airbus's 2024 GMF report predicts a long-term global air passenger traffic compound annual growth rate of 3.6%, with significant growth in per capita flight frequency, particularly in China, where it is expected to rise from 0.6 times in 2024 to 1.8 times by 2044 [1] Group 2 - Cathay Haitong Securities reports a slight increase in fleet size in the first half of 2025, with limited room for improvement in fleet turnover during the summer peak, and domestic operational investment expected to show minimal growth [2] - The demand for family travel during the summer peak is anticipated to remain strong, with optimistic supply-demand expectations, and a slight adjustment in ticket prices by some airlines to ensure good pre-sale progress for the summer season [2] - With a low base for ticket prices in the summer of 2024, a year-on-year increase in ticket prices for the summer of 2025 is expected, potentially leading to record profits for airlines [2] Group 3 - The aviation sector is entering a low growth supply era, with demand showing resilience since April, and the next two years expected to see continued improvement in supply-demand dynamics [2] - The aviation market is steadily approaching the peak season, with limited growth in supply and a natural increase in passenger volume, supporting the logic of rising airline revenues if domestic ticket prices recover [2] - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities continues to recommend focusing on the aviation sector, highlighting strong certainty in supply slowdown and elastic demand, which, combined with favorable oil and exchange rate conditions, could significantly enhance airline performance [2] Group 4 - Related Hong Kong stocks in the aviation sector include China Southern Airlines (600029)(01055), Air China (601111)(00753), China Eastern Airlines (00670), Cathay Pacific Airways (00293), BOC Aviation (02588), and China Civil Aviation Information Network (00696) [3]