供强需稳局面下 铁矿石低位震荡为主

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore prices have been experiencing low-level fluctuations since June, with the Platts iron ore price index dropping to a year-low of $92.75 per ton, and the Qingdao port PB powder price decreasing by 33 yuan per ton, leading to a significant repair of the price discount in recent periods [1] Supply Side - The supply pressure of iron ore remains high, with global shipments from 19 ports reaching 35.067 million tons as of June 22, an increase of 1.54 million tons week-on-week. The cumulative shipment volume for June has surged by 9.1789 million tons compared to the previous month [2] - Major mining companies have shown significant increases in shipment volumes, with the four largest miners collectively shipping 25.06554 million tons, marking a new weekly high for the year. The cumulative shipment for the month has increased by 7.5583 million tons month-on-month and 3.7359 million tons year-on-year, compensating for reductions caused by adverse weather in the first quarter [2] Domestic Supply - High shipment volumes have led to a rebound in iron ore arrivals at domestic ports, with the latest data showing arrivals at 27.729 million tons, an increase of 2.554 million tons week-on-week, reaching a year-high. The cumulative arrival volume for June has grown by 8.32% month-on-month, with Australian ore showing the largest increase at 10.01% [3] - Domestic mining production is gradually recovering, with the capacity utilization rate of 126 mining companies reaching 63.45%, an increase of 2.13 percentage points. The average daily output of iron concentrate has risen to 400,300 tons, up by 13,400 tons month-on-month [3] Demand Side - Despite being in the off-season, steel mills are increasing production, leading to a rise in iron ore consumption. As of June 20, the average daily pig iron output from 247 sample steel mills was 2.4218 million tons, and the daily consumption of imported ore was 3.01 million tons, both showing significant increases [4] - However, seasonal declines in steel demand, particularly in the construction materials sector, are evident. The real estate sector is still in a recovery phase, limiting the potential for increased steel demand, while domestic policies are stabilizing, leading to steady demand for construction steel, but overall demand remains under pressure due to ongoing overseas risks [4] Inventory Situation - The iron ore inventory across the entire industry chain has accumulated for three consecutive weeks, with steel mill inventories showing a notable increase. The latest inventory level for 247 steel mills is 89.3624 million tons, up by 1.3756 million tons, with a consumption ratio of 29.69 days [5] - The port inventory has increased moderately, with the latest value at 110.8 million tons, showing a cumulative increase of only 540,100 tons over three weeks. However, with steel mills adopting a low inventory production strategy, the momentum for further inventory accumulation is insufficient, and high port arrivals in July are expected to lead to a larger increase in port inventory [5]