2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-06-30 02:10Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures experienced mixed performance from June 23 to June 27, with the black and base metal sectors leading gains, influenced by the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, while fuel, crude oil, and European shipping routes faced declines [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel prices fell by 10.73%, crude oil by 12.02%, while lithium carbonate rose by 7.47% [1] - The black metal sector saw increases in coke by 2.67%, coking coal by 6.60%, and iron ore by 1.92% [1] Group 2: Oil Price Dynamics - Brent crude oil prices fell by 12.46% to $66.34 per barrel, while U.S. crude oil dropped by 12.12% to $65.07 per barrel due to supply-demand dynamics [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global oil demand growth is expected to slow, with projections for 2025/2026 revised down to 720,000 to 740,000 barrels per day [2][3] - Analysts noted that while geopolitical tensions may support oil prices in the short term, long-term demand expectations are being adjusted downward, particularly with OPEC+ planning to discuss production levels [4] Group 3: Copper Market Insights - The main copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a weekly increase of 2.47%, closing at 79,920 yuan per ton, with a volatility of 2.42% [5] - Supply remains stable with sufficient copper ore port inventories, but increased export intentions are tightening domestic supply [6] - Global copper demand is projected to double by 2035, but supply may face a significant shortfall of up to 30% [7] Group 4: Industrial Profit Trends - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 9.1% year-on-year decline in profits for industrial enterprises in May, with a cumulative decline of 1.1% for the first five months [9] - Equipment manufacturing and "new" industries showed profit expansion, while consumer manufacturing remained sluggish [9] - The profit structure remains concentrated in midstream manufacturing, with potential support from improved infrastructure investment and declining raw material prices [9][10] Group 5: U.S. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding interest rate adjustments, with officials indicating a lack of urgency for rate cuts amid economic uncertainties [12] - Recent data revisions showed a contraction in U.S. GDP for the first quarter, raising concerns about economic growth and influencing market expectations for future Fed actions [13][14]