稳字当头，预计下半年猪价波动幅度有限

Core Viewpoint - The average price of pork in China has decreased in the first half of the year due to stable supply and seasonal decline in demand, with expectations for stable prices in the second half of the year [1][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The average pork price on June 25 was 20.22 yuan/kg, down 11.4% from 22.81 yuan/kg on January 6 [1]. - The pig price in the third week of June was 14.61 yuan/kg, reflecting an 11.8% drop since the beginning of the year and a 20.8% year-on-year decrease [1]. - From January to May, the slaughter volume of large-scale pig enterprises reached 15.349 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 12.8% [2]. - Pork imports from January to May totaled 450,000 tons, up 5.2% year-on-year, with May imports at 90,000 tons, an 11.7% increase [2]. - Seasonal demand for pork has declined post-Spring Festival, compounded by warmer weather, leading to a seasonal downturn in consumption [2]. Industry Profitability - Despite the drop in pork prices, the pig farming industry remains profitable, with average profits per head around 120 yuan from January to May, decreasing to about 80 yuan in May [3]. - The price of piglets has shown an overall upward trend this year, contributing to high levels of breeding sows [3]. - Continuous decline in feed prices and improved productivity of breeding sows have led to reduced farming costs [3]. Future Price Trends - The pork price is expected to remain stable with narrow fluctuations in the second half of the year due to various supply and demand factors [4]. - An increase in the number of breeding sows is anticipated to lead to a steady rise in piglet production, supporting a stable supply of pigs [4]. - Seasonal demand for pork is expected to rise with the approach of cooler weather and upcoming holidays, which will help stabilize prices [4].