上半年哪些城市值得买？

Core Viewpoint - The overall real estate market in the first half of 2025 shows a weak recovery trend, with new housing supply and demand increasing month-on-month, while the growth momentum for second-hand housing is slowing down significantly, and the land market is experiencing a slight increase in activity [1][2][5]. New Housing Market - The new housing transaction scale remained stable year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with significant supply constraints leading to a decrease in overall supply compared to the same period last year [2]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Chongqing, and Xiamen are leading in new housing transactions, while Hefei has shown a strong year-on-year growth rate of 17.08% in new housing transactions [1][6]. - The new housing market is influenced by both the land and second-hand housing markets, with a dynamic balance between the three components of the real estate ecosystem [1]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The growth momentum for second-hand housing transactions has noticeably slowed in the first half of 2025, attributed to the end of the school district property boom and the influx of quality new properties [7]. - In 30 key cities, the cumulative year-on-year growth for second-hand housing transactions was 11.9%, with first-tier cities showing a 22% increase [7][10]. - Cities like Shenzhen and Xi'an experienced significant year-on-year increases in second-hand housing transactions, while some third- and fourth-tier cities saw substantial growth due to low base effects from the previous year [10][11]. Land Market - The land market continued a trend of "reduced quantity and improved quality," with a total of 250 million square meters of commercial land sold in the first half of 2025, down 8% year-on-year, marking a new low since 2010 [12][15]. - The average premium rate for land transactions reached 9.2%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points compared to the previous year, indicating a concentration of land investment in high-tier cities [15][18]. - The top three cities—Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou—accounted for 35% of the total land transaction value, with significant premium rates observed in cities like Hangzhou, where some land parcels saw premiums exceeding 50% [15][19]. Market Outlook - The real estate market is expected to face a "supply year" due to last year's significant transaction volume decline, with a potential decrease in supply anticipated in the third quarter of 2025 [20][21]. - Core first- and second-tier cities are likely to remain the focus for real estate companies, with an emphasis on launching new projects to capture market share [21].