三大人民币汇率指数上周全线下挫，CFETS按周跌0.56

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the three major RMB exchange rate indices indicates a weakening of the Chinese yuan against a basket of currencies, with the CFETS index hitting its lowest level since December 2020 [1][2]. Exchange Rate Indices - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index is reported at 95.36, down 0.56% week-on-week, marking a low not seen since December 2020 [1][2]. - The BIS currency basket RMB exchange rate index stands at 100.73, down 0.78% week-on-week, the lowest since July 2023 [1][2]. - The SDR currency basket RMB exchange rate index is at 90.21, down 0.54% week-on-week, the lowest since August 2020 [1][2]. Market Context - The geopolitical situation and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have contributed to a decline in the US dollar, which fell 1.52% last week to 97.26, its lowest in nearly three years [5]. - Non-USD currencies saw gains, with the Swiss franc rising 2.35%, the British pound up 1.97%, and the euro increasing by 1.7% [5]. - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.1711, down 126 basis points for the week, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.1729, down 65 basis points, a decline of 0.09% [5]. Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the future trajectory of the RMB is closely tied to the outlook for the US dollar, with a clear direction for gradual appreciation of the RMB in the medium to long term [6]. - Li Liuyang, Chief Analyst at CICC, indicates that the RMB exchange rate will maintain a moderate appreciation in a weak dollar environment, supported by stable exchange rate policies [5][6]. Economic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to May, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises totaled 27,204.3 billion yuan, an increase of 6,034.1 billion yuan compared to the previous four months [7]. - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to May, total operating revenue of state-owned enterprises was 328,062.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, while total profits were 16,514.5 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year [8].