7月宽松规律将至！DR007创内新低，30年国债ETF博时(511130)早盘飘绿

Market Overview - The A-share market opened with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.26% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.4% [1] - The 30-year government bond futures opened with a decline of 0.15%, the 10-year futures down 0.04%, the 5-year down 0.03%, and the 2-year futures unchanged [1] ETF Performance - The 30-year government bond ETF, Bosera (511130), experienced fluctuations, with an intraday drop of 35 basis points and a trading volume exceeding 700 million yuan, indicating active trading [1] Monetary Policy Insights - Recent institutional reports suggest that July typically sees "spontaneous" easing in the market, with government bonds and credit demand unlikely to create liquidity "shocks" [1] - The central bank's assessment of the economy is not yet urgent but is beginning to focus on downward risks, particularly in manufacturing due to tariff disruptions [1] - Historical data indicates that when the manufacturing PMI falls into contraction for three consecutive months, liquidity tends to ease, potentially triggering adjustments in monetary policy [1] Liquidity Environment - The liquidity environment in June reached its loosest state of the year, with the average funding rate dropping to approximately 1.56%, a new low for the year [2] - The central bank has increased its funding injections, particularly in medium to long-term funds, to counterbalance the pressures from government bond supply and maturing certificates of deposit [2] - In June, government bond issuance exceeded 2.7 trillion yuan, while the maturity scale of interbank certificates of deposit surpassed 4 trillion yuan [2] Government Bond ETF Details - The 30-year government bond ETF Bosera (511130) was established in March 2024 and is one of only two on-market ultra-long-term bond ETFs, tracking the "Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-Year Government Bond Index" [3] - The index reflects the overall performance of 30-year government bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a duration of approximately 21 years, making it highly sensitive to interest rate changes [3]