Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel is maintaining geopolitical soft power, while traders are refocusing on market fundamentals, which suggest ample supply in the second half of the year [1] - OPEC's eight member countries are increasing production, intensifying a bearish sentiment in the oil market, and putting pressure on oil's soft power [1][2] - The geopolitical soft power's weakening is leading to a significant reduction in the risk premium associated with oil, dropping from $15 per barrel during peak conflict to less than $1 [1] Group 2 - The supply side is implementing a threefold supply strategy, with OPEC's eight core members planning to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, and Saudi Arabia leading the push for a fourth consecutive increase to regain market share [2] - Kazakhstan's production reached 1.86 million barrels per day in June, exceeding its quota by 2%, while Russia is preparing to release 1.5 million barrels per day of previously restricted capacity [2] - OPEC's production increase has raised its global market share from 37% in 2023 to 39%, but the U.S. production remains high at 13.42 million barrels per day, indicating ongoing competition [2] Group 3 - The market is experiencing a divergence between soft and hard power values, with New York crude futures dropping by 11.27% last week, reflecting the dissolution of geopolitical premiums and expectations of oversupply [3] - Investors are shifting their focus from conflict-driven risk-averse trading to fundamental signals such as declining U.S. inventories and seasonal demand recovery [3] - The focus of the market has shifted to OPEC's July 6 production policy meeting and the progress of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, replacing Middle Eastern tensions as the new triggers for price volatility [3]
邓正红能源软实力：交易逻辑转换 原油供应端强势 欧佩克增产正在加剧看空基调
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-30 03:14