美联储货币政策框架与近期的高通胀——作用、弊端及改革

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and reform of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework in response to rising inflation and economic conditions post-COVID-19, highlighting the need for reassessment and potential changes to better achieve its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability [1][21]. Group 1: Evolution of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Framework - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework is established by the "Federal Reserve Act," focusing on dual goals of maximum employment and price stability, with significant autonomy in its design and implementation [2][3]. - The initial framework, released in January 2012, prioritized price stability, setting a long-term inflation target of 2% based on the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI) [3][4]. Group 2: Changes in Economic Environment - Post-2012, the U.S. economy faced below-potential growth and signs of long-term stagnation, leading the Fed to lower its long-term GDP growth forecast from 2.5% in 2012 to 1.8% in 2016 [4]. - The overall interest rate trend declined, with the Fed reducing its estimate of the neutral federal funds rate from 4.25% to 2.5%, limiting its ability to lower rates during economic downturns [4][5]. Group 3: Reassessment and Reform of the Framework - In 2019, the Fed initiated a comprehensive review of its monetary policy framework, which was further influenced by the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic [6][7]. - Key adjustments included redefining the 2% inflation target as a flexible average inflation target (FAIT) and shifting focus from "deviating" from maximum employment to addressing gaps below maximum employment [7][8]. Group 4: Limitations of the Current Framework - The current framework allows for a 2% inflation target to be achieved under asymmetric conditions, but the assumption that inflation below 2% is the new normal has proven incorrect [10]. - The framework's reliance on past employment conditions to adjust policy may lead to delays in response, as seen in the Fed's decision-making during periods of rising inflation [13][14]. Group 5: Impact of the Framework on Recent Inflation - The Fed's historically accommodative monetary policy, including lowering rates to 0-0.25% and implementing quantitative easing, contributed to significant inflation increases post-pandemic [15][16]. - The transition from high unemployment and low inflation to low unemployment and high inflation highlighted the inadequacies of the current framework, as the Fed maintained low rates despite rising inflation [16][17]. Group 6: Future Prospects for Monetary Policy Framework Reform - The limitations of the current framework have raised concerns about the effectiveness of U.S. monetary policy and the stability of the bond market, prompting legislative scrutiny and potential reforms [21][22]. - The establishment of a congressional working group indicates a bipartisan interest in reassessing the Fed's dual mandate and decision-making processes, which may lead to significant changes in the monetary policy framework [23][24].