下半年资产配置：三季度看韧性，四季度看政策落地

Core Viewpoint - The second half of the year is expected to see a phase synchronization of domestic and foreign policy rhythms, with a focus on structural opportunities in domestic assets [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Despite differing economic cycles between China and the U.S., uncertainties from tariff impacts are leading to synchronized policy rhythms in the second half of the year [1] - In the first half of Q3, both domestic and foreign economies are expected to show resilience, with policies focusing on cautious management of expectations [1] - By the latter part of Q3, export pressures in China and increasing pressures in the U.S. are anticipated, with more incremental policies likely to be introduced in Q4 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. is expected to maintain some resilience in Q3, supporting risk appetite, but uncertainties from tariffs and debt risks may increase market volatility [1] - In Q4, as pressures in the U.S. mount, the likelihood of Fed rate cuts may support risk asset valuations through liquidity [1] - The U.S. fiscal year budget deadline and the expiration of "reciprocal tariffs" in September may lead to significant market fluctuations [1] Group 3: Domestic Economic Conditions - Domestic conditions are expected to remain weak but stable, with infrastructure spending providing upward support in the second half of the year [1] - Export growth is projected to slow down in August, with a neutral year-on-year growth expectation of around 1.5% [1] - Infrastructure funding is expected to increase in the latter half of the year, while real estate policies continue to strengthen [1] Group 4: Asset Allocation - Domestic assets are expected to focus on structural opportunities, with a policy-driven logic becoming more pronounced [1] - Equity markets are anticipated to continue with dividend and growth styles, focusing on undervalued sectors, while commodities will focus on black building materials and agricultural products [1] - Bonds are recommended for low-cost allocation, benefiting from expectations of loose monetary policy in Q4 [1] Group 5: International Market Considerations - International assets should be aligned with the weak dollar theme, while being cautious of volatility spikes [1] - U.S. stocks are expected to experience fluctuations in the first half of Q3, with potential relief from valuation pressures in Q4 due to rate cuts [1] - Non-dollar assets are likely to benefit in a weak dollar environment, while gold and other resource commodities are recommended for long-term strategic allocation [1]