红枣2509合约：本周涨3.05%，新季生长隐患多

Core Viewpoint - The red date futures market is experiencing an upward trend, with current prices and production conditions drawing attention for the upcoming season [1] Futures Market Summary - As of June 27, the closing price for the red date 2509 contract is 9,620 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 285 yuan/ton, or 3.05% [1] - The red date 2509 contract has shown a continuous rebound over the past four weeks since early June, despite entering the off-season [1] Spot Market Summary - The purchase price for Xinjiang gray dates for the 2024 production season ranges from 4.50 to 5.50 yuan/kg, with an average price of 5.33 yuan/kg [1] - The spot price for Hebei first-grade gray dates is 8,350 yuan/ton, up by 50 yuan/ton, while the spot basis CJ09 is down by 235 [1] - The physical inventory in Hebei's Cui'erzhuang market is 10,688 tons, an increase of 8 tons from the previous week [1] Production Conditions Summary - The main production areas in Xinjiang are experiencing temperatures between 20 to 38 degrees Celsius, with high temperatures and wind affecting the first round of flowering and fruit setting [1] - Concerns are raised regarding the second round of fruit setting and weather conditions, with clarity expected in mid to late July [1] - The 2024 production season is anticipated to have a large yield, but there are concerns about the health of the date trees, which may lead to increased risks in new season growth [1] Market Dynamics Summary - The market is currently in a traditional off-season with high total inventory levels, leading to weak demand for supplementary products [1] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has lowered the trading margin and price fluctuation limits for red date futures to enhance market activity [1] - The strategy is deemed neutral, with caution advised for bullish positions due to high inventory and seasonal consumption patterns [1]