鸽声嘹亮？黄金、原油、股指、汇率市场在提前交易“降息”？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing division within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, with market expectations for a rate cut in July rising significantly [2][5][11] - As of June 27, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 75.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 24.8% [2][5] - The internal division among Federal Reserve officials is evident, with 8 supporting two rate cuts and 7 opposing, indicating a close split [5][11] Group 2 - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. dollar, which fell below the 97 mark on June 26, reaching its lowest level since February 2022, with a daily decline of 0.72% [14] - The dollar has depreciated approximately 4% over the past month, reflecting a broader trend of "de-dollarization" and market skepticism about the U.S. economy [17] - Global stock indices are showing renewed trading sentiment, with the Nasdaq approaching its yearly high, influenced by expectations of a rate cut [18] Group 3 - Commodity prices are being preemptively adjusted in anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which is expected to stimulate the U.S. economy [19] - The article notes that the EIA inventory data has shown a continuous decline over five weeks, indicating stable market demand for oil [19] - The article emphasizes the importance of upcoming non-farm payroll data for gold trading, as the U.S. economy has shown signs of contraction, which may influence Federal Reserve decisions [19]