半年过去了，华尔街的“脸都被打肿了”

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant shift in market dynamics due to Trump's tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts, which have disrupted initial predictions for the year, leading to poor performance of previously favored assets like the US dollar and US stocks, while European markets and emerging markets have emerged as unexpected winners [1][2][13] Group 2 - The US dollar has experienced its worst start to the year since 2005, contrary to expectations that Trump's policies would strengthen it due to anticipated inflation and reduced likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][5] - The S&P 500 index saw a dramatic decline followed by a rapid recovery, with investor sentiment shifting significantly after Trump's decision to pause some tariffs, leading to a new historical high for the index [6][13] Group 3 - European stocks have outperformed US stocks, with the Stoxx 600 index beating the S&P 500 by 16 percentage points as of June 27, marking the best relative performance since 2016 [13] - Emerging markets have finally broken a trend of underperformance against US stocks, with a wealth increase of $1.8 trillion for shareholders in 2025, reaching a record market capitalization of $29 trillion [14] Group 4 - The Japanese yen has rebounded significantly against the dollar, with a nearly 9% decline in the dollar/yen exchange rate, reflecting a shift in market sentiment and demand for safe-haven assets [8][11] - Global bond markets are experiencing increased differentiation, with short-term government bonds performing well due to anticipated rate cuts, while long-term bonds face pressure from rising government debt [12]