五年最强！美债上演史诗级大反弹，交易员疯狂押注美联储降息

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market has achieved its best monthly return since February and the strongest first half performance in five years, despite facing various challenges such as political instability, tariff uncertainties, and credit rating downgrades [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is around 4.28%, close to a two-month low, as investors shift focus from the impact of Trump's tax plan to expectations of at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - Investor sentiment is characterized by a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) regarding potential Fed rate cuts, leading to increased exposure to interest rate risks, including 30-year Treasuries [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Expectations - Investors previously doubted a July rate cut but now see a 20% chance, with a September cut viewed as highly likely; key indicators such as employment data will influence the Fed's decision [2] - The market's expectations align with the Fed's median forecast of two 25 basis point cuts by year-end, with rates projected to fall to a range of 3.75% to 4% [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is crucial, with expectations of job growth slowing from 139,000 to approximately 129,000, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2% [2] - A weaker non-farm report could create suspense for the July Fed meeting, but the decision may ultimately be postponed to September [3] Group 4: Interest Rate Projections - Morgan Stanley predicts the 10-year Treasury yield will reach 4% by year-end and approach 3% by 2026, while JPMorgan maintains a year-end forecast of 4.35% for the 10-year yield [4][6] - The potential for the Fed to fall behind the curve due to waiting for clearer economic signals is a concern among investors [5]