2025年，楼市为何持续低迷？房子卖不动的原因找到了

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market faced a significant downturn in 2022, with a sharp decline in both new and second-hand housing sales, reflecting a shift from a previously booming market to a state of "poor operation" [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - From January to July 2022, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 23.1% year-on-year, totaling 780 million square meters [1]. - The second-hand housing market also showed weakness, with over 13 cities experiencing more than 100,000 listings [1]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The pandemic and economic pressures have led to a slowdown in household income growth, causing many families to abandon their home-buying plans. The central bank's survey indicates a significant increase in savings willingness, while investment and consumption intentions have weakened [3]. - Urbanization rate in China has reached 64%, limiting future growth potential in the housing market. The transition from large-scale shantytown renovations to old city renovations has diminished the purchasing incentives previously provided by demolition compensation [3]. Group 3: Price and Supply Issues - In August, the average housing price in 60 key cities reached 17,593 yuan per square meter, with typical homes costing between 2 to 3 million yuan. This high price level severely restricts purchasing power, especially as the average monthly income for ordinary residents ranges from 3,000 to 6,000 yuan [6]. - The housing ownership rate in China is as high as 96%, with 41.5% of families owning two or more properties. An estimated 10 million vacant homes exist nationwide, indicating a saturated market where demand has been largely met [6]. Group 4: Demographic Trends - The continuous decline in marriage rates and birth rates has further weakened housing demand. From 2013 to 2021, the marriage rate dropped from 9.9‰ to 5.4‰, significantly impacting the need for housing as high property prices and child-rearing costs deter young people from marrying and buying homes [8]. - The combination of high housing prices, low income, oversupply, and demographic changes has created a complex situation for the real estate market, indicating that future challenges will require collaborative efforts from the government, businesses, and individuals to achieve sustainable development [8].