美元贬值背后，鲍威尔如何守护美元储备货币地位？

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic data from the United States has raised concerns about the future trajectory of the US dollar, leading to a significant decline in its value and prompting a reevaluation of its status as the global reserve currency [1][2]. Economic Data Summary - The core PCE price index for May slightly exceeded expectations, rising by 0.2% month-on-month, but consumer spending fell by 0.3%, marking the largest decline since the beginning of the year [1]. - The final GDP figure for Q1 and new home sales data released on June 25 showed weak performance, further increasing expectations for interest rate cuts [1]. - Market data indicates a 27% probability of a rate cut in July and an 84% probability in September [1]. Dollar Performance Summary - The dollar index has experienced a continuous decline, dropping below the 97 mark, the lowest level since March 2022 [1]. - Year-to-date, the dollar has fallen by 10.34%, with a decline of 4.59% over the past two months [1]. Factors Influencing Dollar Decline - The strong performance of the euro, which accounts for over 60% of the dollar index, has significantly contributed to the dollar's weakness [2]. - A historic agreement among NATO members to significantly increase defense spending is expected to inject new momentum into the European economy, further boosting the euro [2]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Germany's fiscal stimulus measures are anticipated to increase investments in infrastructure and military sectors in Europe, supporting the euro's exchange rate [2]. Federal Reserve's Stance - Despite rising calls for interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve has not yet taken action, with Chairman Jerome Powell expressing concerns about inflation risks from trade wars [2][4]. - Powell's recent testimony indicated that while many paths are possible regarding rate cuts, there is no clear timeline, leading to market interpretations of a potential softening stance [4]. - Trump has publicly criticized Powell for not cutting rates, arguing that this has caused the US economy to lag behind Europe [4]. Concerns About Dollar's Reserve Status - Powell has countered concerns about the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency, asserting that it remains the largest safe-haven currency globally [4]. - However, Powell has expressed worries about the unsustainable trajectory of US federal debt, which could materially damage the dollar's reserve currency status [5]. - The recently passed "Big Beautiful Bill" is projected to increase federal debt by $3.8 trillion over the next decade, reaching 125% of GDP, exacerbating the debt issue and potentially impacting the dollar's reserve status [5].