国际金价周内大幅下挫3%,现货黄金报3273美元创近四周新低

Current Gold Price Dynamics - Spot gold price is reported at $3273 per ounce, with a weekly decline of nearly 3%, marking a four-week low, and it briefly fell below the $3250 level [1] - COMEX gold futures dropped to $3287.6 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 2.9% [1] Domestic Gold Prices - Retail gold prices for brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang range from 989 to 996 RMB per gram, down approximately 4% from peak levels [2] - Wholesale market prices in Shenzhen's Shui Bei dropped to 756 RMB per gram, down over 4% from 792 RMB per gram at the beginning of May [3] - Recycling prices are around 750-772 RMB per gram, with daily recycling volume increasing by 20%, and some shops reporting daily recycling volumes of several kilograms [4] Reasons for Recent Gold Price Decline - Decreased risk aversion due to easing Middle East tensions (ceasefire between Israel and Iran) and progress in US-China trade negotiations, which weakened demand for gold as a safe haven [5] - Monetary policy pressure as Fed Chair Powell emphasized the need to observe the impact of tariffs on inflation, with a July rate cut probability dropping to 20%, leading to a stronger dollar that suppresses gold prices [6] - Technical selling pressure triggered by gold prices breaking below the critical support level of $3300, leading to programmatic stop-loss selling [6] - Capital flows shifting towards risk assets, with US stock markets reaching new highs (S&P and Nasdaq at historical peaks) [7] Future Price Predictions - Bearish outlook from Citibank, predicting gold prices may fall to $2500-$2700 in 2026 due to weak demand and delayed rate cuts [8] - Short-term support levels indicate that if prices fall below $3250, they may test the $3200 level, potentially reaching the $3120-$3180 range [9] Bullish Outlook - Bullish perspective from Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, with long-term targets of $4000, supported by central bank gold purchases (averaging over 1000 tons annually) and weakening dollar credit [10] - Key variables include geopolitical risks (compliance with ceasefire by Israel and potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz) and policy shifts (potential early rate cuts by the Fed if unemployment exceeds 5% or inflation drops sharply) [10] Consumer and Investor Strategies - For consumers, it is advisable to focus on essential purchases in Shenzhen's Shui Bei wholesale market (where processing fees are only one-third of brand stores) or products priced by weight with low processing fees [11] - Wedding demand strategies include brands offering "1:1 exchange with no depreciation" for old gold jewelry, reducing costs by 40% [12] - Investment strategies suggest a cautious approach in the short term, observing support levels of $3200-$3250, and considering short positions if these levels are breached; a rebound to $3320-$3330 could be an opportunity for short positions [13] - For long-term investments, a dollar-cost averaging strategy in gold ETFs (like Huaan Gold ETF) is recommended, with allocation controlled at 5%-10% of assets, alongside diversified investments in government bonds and stable financial products to avoid an all-in approach on gold [14] Market Volatility - Increased volatility is noted, with the 30-day historical volatility of gold rising to 18.7% and implied volatility of options exceeding 25% [16] Summary - Current gold prices are under dual pressure from geopolitical easing and a hawkish Fed, with short-term potential declines to the $3200-$3250 range, but long-term bullish trends supported by central bank purchases and monetary system changes [17] - Investors are advised to balance the safe-haven attributes with volatility risks, prioritizing a "dollar-cost averaging + phased entry" strategy, while consumers should take advantage of price corrections to avoid brand premiums and focus on transparent processing fees [17] - The market's next direction will depend on the stability of the Middle East situation and signals from the Fed's September policy meeting, with close attention to core PCE inflation data and geopolitical events [17]