地缘风险消散，原油价格回归基本面，供需失衡成关键变量

Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil market has experienced a significant decline in risk premium due to easing geopolitical tensions, particularly following the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East, which has reduced concerns over supply disruptions [1][3]. Supply Side Changes - The global crude oil supply landscape is undergoing subtle adjustments, with OPEC+ members showing differing compliance with production cuts, particularly Iraq and Kazakhstan exceeding their quotas, undermining the overall effectiveness of the reduction policy [4]. - The continuous growth of U.S. shale oil production, driven by technological advancements and cost control, is adding new variables to global supply, while non-OPEC oil-producing countries are also expanding their capacities, contributing to upward pressure on supply [4]. - OPEC+ faces challenges not only from external competition but also from increasing internal coordination difficulties, as core members like Saudi Arabia must balance price stability with market share [4]. Demand Outlook - Global economic slowdown is exerting substantial pressure on crude oil demand, with weak manufacturing activity and sluggish transportation fuel consumption in major economies [5]. - China's economic restructuring and energy transition are suppressing traditional oil demand, while the rapid development of renewable energy technologies is altering long-term energy consumption patterns, reducing reliance on fossil fuels [5]. - Seasonal factors are also impacting current demand, as the end of the summer driving season leads to a decline in gasoline consumption, compounded by cyclical adjustments in industrial production [5].