历史新高的美股，正在考验投资者对欧股的信仰

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index surged by 10% in the second quarter, significantly outperforming the European Stoxx 600 index, which rose by less than 2%, indicating a potential end to the narrative of U.S. exceptionalism in the stock market [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Market Performance - The strong performance of U.S. stocks surprised many investors, who had anticipated that Trump's tariff policies would lead to a capital shift towards European markets [3]. - The rebound in U.S. stocks has diminished investor confidence in the sustainability of the shift towards European markets, despite European stocks slightly outperforming U.S. stocks overall this year [3][4]. - U.S. stocks are supported by multiple factors, including better-than-expected employment data, stable unemployment rates, retail investors buying on dips, and record corporate buybacks [7]. Group 2: European Market Concerns - Despite the overall performance of the Stoxx Europe 600 index being up by 7% this year compared to the S&P 500's 5%, recent poor performance has raised investor concerns about the sustainability of momentum created by Germany's defense and infrastructure spending plans [4][5]. - The European market faces challenges related to profitability, with skepticism about whether countries like Germany will effectively implement infrastructure plans [5]. - Recent surveys indicated a decline in consumer and business confidence in the EU and Eurozone, reflecting the impact of increased tariffs [5]. Group 3: Diverging Investor Sentiment - Some investors maintain expectations for a broader rotation in the U.S. stock market, despite concerns over high valuations [8]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs suggest that U.S. stock valuations have become excessively high, indicating a potential shift towards diversification in investment strategies [8]. - Pictet Asset Management's chief strategist believes that long-term economic growth slowdowns in the U.S. and fiscal stimulus in Europe could help narrow the performance gap between the two regions [8].