棕榈油、豆油等：上周多合约下跌，短期或震荡运行

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is experiencing a short-term fluctuation, with prices of various oilseed contracts declining due to easing geopolitical tensions and changing supply-demand dynamics [1] Price Movements - BMD palm oil futures fell by 103 to close at 4012 MYR/ton, a decrease of 2.5% - The September palm oil contract dropped by 160 to 8376 CNY/ton, down 1.87% - Soybean oil futures decreased by 154 to 8002 CNY/ton, a decline of 1.89% - Canola oil futures fell by 260 to 9466 CNY/ton, down 2.67% - CBOT soybean oil futures dropped by 2.42 to 52.62 cents/pound, a decrease of 4.4% - ICE canola futures fell by 42.8 to 698.7 CAD/ton, down 5.77% [1] Market Influences - The decline in oilseed prices is attributed to the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict and the effectiveness of the ceasefire agreement, which reduced geopolitical risks affecting oil prices [1] - High-frequency data indicates a moderate increase in June palm oil production, while the growth in export demand is narrowing, leading to an expected increase in inventory by the end of June [1] - Domestic palm oil inventory is rising, improving the previously tight market conditions [1] Macro Factors - The U.S. Treasury Secretary hinted at the possibility of extending tariffs until September 1, contributing to a weaker dollar index and fluctuating oil prices [1] - Weak U.S. economic data has increased expectations for interest rate cuts, which may influence market dynamics [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Brazil has raised the mandatory blending ratio for biodiesel from 14% to 15%, which is expected to support market prices [1] - Anticipated increases in palm oil inventory by the end of June suggest a more relaxed supply situation, awaiting the release of the MPOB report [1] - The recent increase in palm oil shipments to ports indicates a recovery in inventory levels, alleviating previous urgent procurement needs [1] Short-term Outlook - Overall, the palm oil market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, influenced by biodiesel policies, the MPOB report, production levels, and export trends [1]