巨富金业：2025年6月非农数据前瞻-迷雾中的就业图景

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm payroll data is a critical indicator for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, reflecting labor market health and influencing global asset pricing. The upcoming June data will further validate the cooling pace of the labor market and impact the Fed's interest rate expectations for September [2]. Labor Market Indicators - The unemployment rate stands at 4.2%, with non-farm payrolls showing an increase of 139,000 jobs in May, despite a downward revision of 95,000 jobs from previous data. The labor department's survey methods have raised concerns about data interpretation, particularly regarding potential overestimation of job creation [3][8]. - The market anticipates June non-farm payrolls to show an increase of 120,000 jobs, with a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. Wage growth is expected to slow, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [6][10]. Institutional Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts an increase of 140,000 to 160,000 jobs for June, while Wells Fargo is more pessimistic, forecasting only 115,000 new jobs. The market median expectation is for an increase of 130,000 jobs [10]. - The disparity in predictions highlights differing views on the labor market's resilience, with some institutions emphasizing the impact of tariffs and government hiring freezes on employment [10]. Historical Data Review - Historical data shows a trend of slowing job growth, with March's initial figure at 228,000 jobs, revised down to 117,000 in April, and May's figure at 139,000. This indicates a pattern of deceleration in job growth, while wage growth remains relatively stable [8]. Market Impact and Strategies - The non-farm payroll data significantly influences the gold market, with expectations of job growth above 200,000 and an unemployment rate below 4.2% likely to strengthen the Fed's hawkish stance, negatively impacting gold prices. Conversely, lower job growth and a higher unemployment rate could boost expectations for rate cuts, benefiting gold [12][13]. - The upcoming ISM manufacturing PMI data is also crucial, as a rebound could alleviate recession concerns and positively correlate with non-farm payroll performance [15]. Key Events and Data - The Senate's vote on the "Big Beautiful Bill" and statements from Federal Reserve officials will be closely monitored, as they may provide insights into the Fed's stance on inflation and employment ahead of the non-farm payroll release [16][17].