金价连续两周下跌，超四成央行明确要继续买，普通人跟不跟？

Core Viewpoint - After nearly six months of soaring prices and surpassing historical highs over 20 times, global gold prices have entered a correction phase, influenced by geopolitical tensions easing, improving economic data, and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of June 30, spot gold prices fell below $3,250 per ounce, marking a one-month low after two consecutive weeks of decline [1]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by over 20% [3]. Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - According to the World Gold Council's recent survey, 95% of central banks believe they will continue to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [3][9]. - Approximately 43% of central banks explicitly plan to increase their gold reserves within the next year [3]. - A survey by OMFIF indicates that 32% of central banks plan to increase their gold exposure in the next 12 to 24 months, the highest figure in five years [4]. Group 3: China's Gold Reserves - As of May 31, 2025, China's gold reserves stood at 7.383 million ounces, reflecting an increase of 60,000 ounces from the end of April, marking seven consecutive months of growth [5]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold purchases by central banks will remain strong, forecasting gold prices to reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and potentially $4,000 by mid-2026, with an extreme scenario suggesting prices could hit $4,500 by the end of 2025 [6]. - Conversely, Citigroup expects gold prices to drop below $3,000 per ounce in the coming quarters, forecasting a range of $2,500 to $2,700 by the second half of 2026 [7]. Group 5: Central Bank's Logic Behind Gold Purchases - The increase in central bank gold purchases reflects a shift in asset allocation logic, with gold seen as a means to enhance reserve diversity and resilience amid growing uncertainties [9][12]. - Central banks' gold purchases now account for about 20% of global gold demand, up from 10-15% before 2022, indicating a significant increase in demand [9].