创新崛起：中国药企“出海”如何助力全球医药发展

Core Insights - The Chinese innovative drug market is projected to exceed 2,500 billion RMB in 2024, capturing 29% of the domestic core hospital market, and is expected to grow to over 4,500 billion RMB by 2030 [1] - The outbound licensing (BD) transactions for Chinese pharmaceutical companies are expected to reach 51.9 billion USD in 2024, with a forecast of 265.9 billion USD by 2030 [1] - The market is driven by industrial logic, policy support, and breakthroughs in internationalization strategies, making it one of the most promising sectors in the pharmaceutical industry [1][2] Market Growth - The innovative drug market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with the outpatient market projected to exceed 1,000 billion RMB in 2024 and 2,000 billion RMB by 2030 [1] - The number of cross-border License-out transactions for Chinese innovative drugs exceeded 50 in 2023, with a potential total value exceeding 40 billion USD [2] - The Chinese biotech sector is transitioning from being a global participant to a contributor, with a focus on innovation and collaboration [2] Internationalization Challenges - The internationalization of Chinese innovative drugs faces challenges such as cultural and regulatory differences across countries [3] - The potential for global multi-center clinical trials remains significant, as the current participation rate is still low [3] - The need for "ecological collaboration" is emphasized to enhance global competitiveness and facilitate the export of Chinese technology and services [3] Investment Landscape - The past decade has seen Chinese innovative drug companies evolve from "technology followers" to key players in the global life sciences sector [5] - The market is witnessing a shift in funding flows and favorable policies, with the reintroduction of the fifth set of standards for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [5] - The number of original innovative drugs (FIC) from Chinese companies has significantly increased, with a global share of 24%, second only to the U.S. [6][7] Clinical Development - Chinese companies are diversifying their drug development strategies, with a notable focus on cell therapies and other emerging fields [7] - The NDA application volume is rising, with a significant increase in domestic drug approvals since 2018 [7] - The efficiency of clinical trials in China is highlighted, with a strong patient resource base and numerous clinical centers [7] Market Segmentation - The global biopharmaceutical market is primarily concentrated in oncology, autoimmune diseases, and metabolic disorders, with a projected market size of 4,310 billion USD in 2022 [8] - The Chinese biopharmaceutical market is expected to grow to 11,991 billion RMB by 2030, benefiting from a large population and reduced production costs [8] Licensing Trends - The licensing-out trend for Chinese innovative drugs is at an all-time high, with the U.S. being the primary destination for these transactions [9] - In the past decade, 49% of license-out transactions involved U.S. companies, accounting for 55% of the total transaction value [9] - The trend of Chinese companies exporting high-quality projects continues, with more outbound transactions than inbound in early 2025 [10] Operational Challenges - Chinese companies face challenges related to patent rights and supply chain issues when entering international markets [11] - The need for establishing overseas production facilities is emphasized for long-term international market success [11] - The increasing scrutiny from overseas buyers regarding clinical data integrity poses additional challenges for Chinese pharmaceutical companies [11] Profitability Outlook - Many innovative drug companies are expected to achieve profitability between 2025 and 2027 as new products are approved and commercialized [12] - Diverse revenue models are enhancing the likelihood of profitability for innovative drug companies, contributing to asset certainty [12]