木材“危与机”：乌克兰的欧盟救命单VS中国断崖跌！

Core Insights - The forestry sector, which includes timber processing and furniture manufacturing, was a significant economic pillar in certain regions of Ukraine, despite only accounting for 1.2% of the national GDP before the conflict [1] Group 1: Economic Impact of the Conflict - The Ukrainian economy suffered a severe contraction of nearly one-third following the outbreak of the conflict in 2022 [3] - The destruction of energy infrastructure led to a sharp increase in domestic demand for firewood [3] - The Ukrainian government decided to increase timber harvesting in controlled areas to alleviate economic pressure, with plans to strengthen the timber processing industry in the western controlled regions [3] Group 2: Export Performance - In the first five months of 2025, Ukraine's timber and wood products exports reached 1.42 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.55%, with export value around $671 million, up 13.2% from the previous year [3] - The EU's ban on Russian timber and the introduction of Autonomous Trade Measures (ATM) in 2022 allowed Ukrainian forestry products to enter the EU market significantly, making Ukraine the second-largest furniture supplier in Europe after China [5] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - The EU's increasing demands for transparency and sustainability in forestry products necessitate urgent reforms in Ukraine's forestry sector to meet market standards [5] - The termination of the ATM by the EU does not affect Ukraine's classification as a "low-risk" country under the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which still facilitates access to the EU market [5] - Despite a drastic decline in timber exports to China, where imports fell by 80.2% in 2022, Ukraine maintains a strong bilateral trade relationship, with imports from China increasing by 37.2% in 2024 [7] Group 4: Market Outlook - Overall, Ukraine's forestry trade faces both opportunities and challenges in the current international landscape, with stable demand from the EU but significant hurdles in restoring exports to China [9]