美联储观察：“观望”下的暗流涌动

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on July 29-30 may lead to significant changes in market expectations regarding monetary policy, despite a prevailing "wait-and-see" attitude from the Fed and market anticipation of no changes in policy [1][2]. Group 1: Potential Divergence in Fed Decisions - The July meeting could witness a rare divergence within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), reminiscent of a situation from 32 years ago, as two Fed governors have expressed a desire for rate cuts [2]. - The two governors, Vice Chair Bowman and Governor Waller, are both linked to former President Trump and may potentially cast dissenting votes during the meeting [2]. Group 2: Influence of Trump's Nomination Power - Trump has the opportunity to influence the Fed's future direction by nominating a new chair before Powell's term ends in May 2026, which could lead to a "shadow chair" effect on policy signaling [4][5]. - Trump has two options for the next Fed chair: nominate from the current board or appoint a new member to the board before nominating them as chair [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Pricing - Financial markets have begun to price in the possibility of a "shadow Fed" and the aggressive rate cuts advocated by Trump, as evidenced by recent highs in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 despite Fed's signals of policy caution [5]. - The yields on 2-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 7-year U.S. Treasury bonds have declined by over 30 basis points in the past three weeks, indicating market adjustments to potential internal divisions within the Fed [5].