施永青：楼市调整周期因城而异 一线城市率先复苏

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is undergoing a significant adjustment, characterized by a decline in overall transaction volume and a shift towards a "stock era" where existing properties are prioritized over new developments [1][3] - Regulatory bodies are implementing policies aimed at stabilizing the market, focusing on "strict control of new supply and revitalizing existing stock" to address structural changes in the market [1][4] - The recovery timeline for different cities varies, with first-tier cities expected to recover within five years, while third and fourth-tier cities may take up to ten years [4][5] Market Dynamics - The era of rapid real estate development is over, with a predicted decrease in annual development volume [3] - First-tier cities and rapidly developing cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu can still support new housing due to favorable population inflow, while many third and fourth-tier cities have excess inventory and do not require new construction [3][4] - The demand for housing is driven by ongoing urbanization and population movement, which will sustain housing needs in various regions [8] Policy Recommendations - Existing unsold properties should be converted into self-occupied housing rather than constructing new units, to avoid resource wastage [5] - Land approval processes should adhere to the principle of "housing for living, not speculation," ensuring that new land is allocated based on actual housing needs [5] Company Strategy - The company has adjusted its operations in response to market cycles, maintaining a conservative expansion strategy and preserving cash flow [6][7] - The company has reduced its scale in line with the market contraction, indicating a proactive approach to align with market conditions [7] Market Trends - The second-hand housing market is performing better than the new housing market, with significant transaction volumes in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai [8] - The company is developing a "Central City Index" to provide a scientific basis for price trends in the real estate market, addressing the lack of standardized pricing mechanisms [10] Technological Advancements - The company is embracing AI technology to enhance its services, including developing valuation systems for banks and predictive pricing models for clients [11][12] - The anticipated completion of a large-scale data model for the real estate sector is expected within one to six months, aimed at improving transaction efficiency [12]