美国经济倒计时？两大“定时炸弹”或引经济末日！

Group 1 - The U.S. economy remains resilient despite high tariffs on imports and Middle East tensions, with stable inflation and low unemployment, but this may change as key deadlines approach [1] - The first critical date is July 9, when the 90-day pause on "reciprocal tariffs" ends, potentially leading to higher tariffs unless trade agreements are reached [1] - The second crisis is the potential debt default in August, as Treasury Secretary Mnuchin warns that the government may face its first-ever default unless the debt ceiling is raised before Congress recesses on August 4 [1] Group 2 - President Trump announced new tariffs on Canada, citing their refusal to cancel a planned tax, despite some exemptions under the USMCA [2] - The economic impact of the tariffs is uncertain, with analysts suggesting that the outcome on July 9 will depend on the government's policy choices, which may include a mix of delays and partial agreements [2] - Fitch Ratings warns that regardless of the July outcome, CPI inflation could rise to 4% by year-end, especially if high tariffs are reinstated [3]