美联储独立时代进入落幕倒计时，特朗普在给美国经济最后一击！

Group 1 - The article argues that the Trump administration has abandoned two of the three long-standing economic principles in the U.S., which are promoting international trade and maintaining fiscal control, potentially leading to a perfect storm of inflation and debt crisis [2] - The third principle, which involves delegating monetary policy to an independent central bank, is also under threat, raising the risk level significantly as the combination of these policy deviations could lead to severe economic consequences [2] - The article suggests that achieving public debt reduction through inflation is no longer a distant possibility but a reasonable outcome, indicating a shift towards "fiscal dominance" where government fiscal policy takes precedence in macroeconomic management [2] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell maintains that the current policy interest rate should remain at a moderate restrictive level of 4.25%-4.5% due to inflation being slightly above target and potential price increases from tariffs, while Trump calls for an immediate 2.5% rate cut [3] - Trump's antagonistic stance towards Powell has compromised the Fed's operational freedom, with speculation about a potential successor who may align more closely with Trump's views [3] - The article highlights that the Fed's independence is more of a convention than a legal requirement, and recent political developments suggest that this convention can be disregarded [4] Group 3 - The Fed has limited options to counteract the impending loss of independence, but it can take steps to maintain its integrity, such as fostering internal unity among decision-makers and avoiding public displays of political bias [4] - The article recommends that the Fed should adopt rule-based monetary policy frameworks to guide interest rate decisions, which could help mitigate abrupt and unpredictable policy shifts [4] - Despite the challenges posed by a politically assertive president, the article concludes that the era of Fed independence is waning, and stakeholders should prepare for this reality [6]