Circle看空报告来了！摩根大通：盈利模式“剪刀差”吞噬利润，再给10%“情绪溢价”也只值80美元

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has issued a report on Circle, warning that its valuation is excessively high and has set a target price of $80, a significant reduction of 56% from the current stock price of $180, indicating deep concerns about the company's current valuation [1][2]. Valuation Concerns - Since its IPO on June 4 at $31, Circle's stock has surged by 482%, reaching a market capitalization of $40 billion [2]. - The target price of $80 is based on a 45x price-to-earnings ratio for an adjusted earnings per share of $1.56 in 2027, plus a $10 "investor enthusiasm premium" [5]. Business Model Challenges - Circle's revenue model heavily relies on reserve investment income, with approximately two-thirds of its income going to partners promoting USDC, which may rise to 70% as more distribution agreements are signed, leading to a decline in gross margin from 39% to 34% [6][9]. - The company is highly sensitive to interest rate changes, with a projected peak in reserve yield in 2024, expected to decline to a steady state of 3.00%, putting continuous pressure on profitability unless USDC circulation significantly increases [10]. Competitive Landscape - Circle faces intense competition, particularly from new entrants offering higher yields to capture market share, with low switching costs for stablecoin users [1][9]. - The "winner-takes-all" market structure may not persist, as new products are encroaching on traditional stablecoin use cases [13]. Regulatory Environment - Circle is positioned as the second-largest stablecoin issuer, with USDC holding a market share of about 25%, and is compliant with upcoming regulations, which could benefit the company [13][14]. - The anticipated passage of the GENIUS Act in July is expected to provide a clear regulatory framework for the stablecoin industry, which Circle is likely to benefit from due to its compliance [13]. International Growth Potential - Circle has significant growth opportunities in high-inflation countries like Argentina and Turkey, where USDC is increasingly used as a store of value [14]. - A 1% increase in USDC penetration in the M2 money supply of the nine largest high-inflation countries could lead to an increase in circulation by approximately $14 billion [14]. Strategic Initiatives - The launch of the Circle Payments Network (CPN) in May 2025 is seen as a critical strategic move, focusing on B2B cross-border payments and consumer remittances, tapping into a potential market of $37 trillion in B2B cross-border payment volume [15]. - Success in the B2B e-commerce and Southeast Asian cross-border payment sectors will be crucial for Circle to establish itself as the "stablecoin version of Swift" [15].