GTC泽汇：市场聚焦美联储动向与就业数据表现

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant downturn due to multiple macroeconomic and technical factors, with a shift in focus from geopolitical issues to U.S. economic data, particularly employment indicators impacting monetary policy [1][5]. Price Movement - Gold opened last week at $3,380.10 per ounce, reached a weekly high of $3,391, but quickly fell below the $3,350 support level, which turned into resistance. The price dropped below $3,300 for the first time on Tuesday and fell to a weekly low of $3,256 on Friday, with a slight recovery to around $3,275 [1][5]. Market Sentiment - A recent Kitco survey indicates that the majority of Wall Street analysts are bearish on gold prices, with only 35% expecting an increase, while over half anticipate further declines. In contrast, 51% of retail investors remain bullish, highlighting a significant divergence in views between institutions and retail investors [1][2]. Technical Analysis - Analysts express differing opinions on gold's technical outlook. Some suggest that if gold cannot regain the $3,344 level, it will maintain a downward trend, potentially targeting $3,175 if it falls below $3,258. Others believe that the long-term support for gold remains intact due to inflation concerns and expectations of monetary easing [4][5]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming U.S. employment data, including ISM manufacturing PMI, ADP employment report, and non-farm payroll data, are expected to be critical in determining gold's price trajectory. Weak data could reinforce rate cut expectations, potentially leading to a resurgence in gold prices [5].