“三连涨”或来袭！加满一箱油要多花11元

Core Viewpoint - Domestic refined oil prices in China are expected to rise on July 1, with an estimated increase of 260 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, marking the first "three consecutive increases" of the year [1][3]. Group 1: Price Changes - As of June 27, the reference crude oil change rate was 6.00%, leading to an expected increase of 0.2 yuan for 92 gasoline, 0.22 yuan for 95 gasoline, and 0.22 yuan for 0 diesel [1][3]. - Filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will cost an additional 11 yuan after the price adjustment [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The international oil price showed a trend of rising and then falling during the current pricing cycle, with the domestic reference crude oil change rate decreasing from a high positive value [3]. - Despite a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories and increased demand, the overall trend of the crude oil change rate remains downward, indicating that the conditions for a price increase are still met [3]. Group 3: Profit Margins - As of June 27, the theoretical profit for 92 gasoline was 1,290 yuan per ton for major suppliers and 1,638 yuan per ton for local refineries, reflecting increases of 179 and 291 yuan per ton respectively since June 17 [4]. - The theoretical profit for 0 diesel was 760 yuan per ton for major suppliers and 1,763 yuan per ton for local refineries, with increases of 183 and 84 yuan per ton respectively since June 17 [4]. Group 4: Historical Context - In 2023, there have been 12 rounds of price adjustments for domestic oil, resulting in five increases, five decreases, and two pauses [4]. - After the upcoming price adjustment, the pricing pattern for 2023 will shift to six increases, five decreases, and two pauses [4].