债市年中观察｜单边牛市转为震荡市，央行持续发声关注长期收益率变化

Core Viewpoint - The central bank is increasingly focusing on the bond market, particularly on the changes in long-term yields, as it navigates a shift from a bull market to a more volatile environment in 2025 [1][3][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to maintain a "moderately loose" monetary policy, with room for further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions [1][6][7]. - The PBOC's second-quarter monetary policy meeting emphasized the need to enhance the guidance of policy interest rates and improve the transmission mechanism of market interest rates [3][7]. - Analysts predict that while bond yields are likely to trend downward, a significant unilateral decline is unlikely due to external risks and the need for economic stability [6][8]. Group 2: Bond Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the bond market experienced significant volatility, with long-term yields initially rising before declining, influenced by changes in central bank attitudes and liquidity conditions [4][5]. - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated from approximately 1.6% to 1.9% in early 2025, reflecting a cautious liquidity stance from the central bank [4]. - As of June 30, 2025, major interbank bond yields showed slight increases, indicating a mixed market sentiment [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts foresee that the bond market will continue to experience fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to remain within the range of 1.5% to 1.8% [6][7]. - The market is particularly attentive to the timing of potential RRR cuts and interest rate reductions, which could influence bond market volatility [7][8]. - The overall expectation is that the bond market will not replicate the previous year's bull run, but rather remain in a state of oscillation due to various economic pressures [6][8].