上半年三大人民币汇率报价集体升值，后续升值预期不变

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has appreciated against the US dollar, reaching its highest level since November 2024, with the central parity rate reported at 7.1586 yuan per dollar on June 30, 2025, an increase of 41 basis points from the previous trading day [1][3]. Exchange Rate Performance - As of June 30, 2025, both onshore and offshore yuan appreciated, with onshore yuan at 7.1652 (up 0.10%) and offshore yuan at 7.1629 (up 0.14%) [3]. - In June 2025, the yuan continued its upward trend from May, with onshore and offshore rates fluctuating between 7.17 and 7.18, indicating a gradual appreciation [3]. - For the first half of 2025, the onshore yuan appreciated by 1.84%, the offshore yuan by 2.37%, and the central parity rate by 298 basis points [3]. Factors Influencing Yuan Strength - The weakening US dollar index, domestic economic fundamentals, and flexible monetary policy from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) have contributed to the resilience of the yuan [3][4]. - The US dollar index has been on a downward trend, reaching a low of 96.9712 on June 30, 2025, marking a 2.26% decline for the month and a 10.41% decline for the year [4]. Monetary Policy and Future Outlook - The PBOC aims to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilize market expectations, maintaining the yuan at a reasonable and balanced level [5]. - Future yuan exchange rate movements will be influenced by domestic consumption policies and the progress of US-China trade negotiations, with expectations of continued moderate appreciation in a weak dollar environment [5].