Macro Environment Outlook - The overall fiscal effort has been advanced this year, with expectations for continued positive fiscal policies in the second half, potentially leading to an increase in overall debt growth driven by government department debt growth [1] - The expansion of welfare-oriented fiscal policies and rising inflation may boost nominal GDP growth [1] - Monetary policy is expected to have room for rate cuts in the context of stabilizing growth and exchange rate constraints, with a continued trend of asymmetric rate cuts on both asset and liability sides [1] - The annual social financing growth rate is projected to be around 8.5%, with a peak expected by the end of the third quarter [1] Industry Core Indicators Outlook - The long-term growth center of social financing is strongly correlated with banks' internal capital accumulation ability, and the "volume compensates for price" strategy is unlikely to reverse the downward trend in net interest income [2] - To further reduce deposit costs, improvements in the industry competition landscape or significant reductions in market interest rates are necessary [2] - Loan pricing is closely related to asset liquidity, with current social financing growth significantly exceeding nominal growth, indicating that loan rates are expected to continue declining, although the pace may slow due to various constraints [2] - The overall credit environment remains loose, with expected stability in non-performing loan generation in the second half of the year [2] Asset Liquidity and Allocation Outlook - The turning point of cross-border liquidity will determine the directional shift of domestic asset liquidity, with expectations for accelerated repatriation of funds due to the relatively high returns of RMB assets after considering exchange rate fluctuations [3] - The return rate of risk assets is currently high compared to the 1.6% risk-free rate, indicating a gradual shift of funds towards risk assets such as credit bonds and stocks [3] Industry Prosperity Outlook - Asset-liability pressure is expected to gradually ease in the third and fourth quarters, with year-on-year growth rates for interest-earning assets projected at 7.86% and 7.80% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4] - The narrowing of interest margins is expected to slow down, with overall growth in non-interest income anticipated to turn positive [4] - The bond market is expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation pattern in the third quarter, with potential upward adjustments in bond market interest rates in the fourth quarter due to high base effects [4] - Overall asset quality is expected to remain stable, with a projected decline in provisioning contributions [4] - For 2025, the combined revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed banks are expected to change by -1.67% and -0.29% year-on-year, respectively, with state-owned banks performing better than other sectors [4]
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