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Core Viewpoint - Foreign investors are diversifying their portfolios and reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds due to concerns over rising deficits and inflationary tariffs, which are diminishing the attractiveness of U.S. debt [2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds and Foreign Investment - The U.S. national debt has quadrupled to approximately $36 trillion in less than a decade, with public holdings around $29 trillion [3]. - In April, foreign capital saw a net outflow of $14.2 billion from U.S. Treasury bonds and the banking system, influenced by Trump's tariff policies [2][3]. - Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt at $1.13 trillion, followed by the UK at $807.7 billion and China at $757.2 billion [3]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Fiscal Policy - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that Trump's tax cuts and spending measures will increase U.S. debt by $3.3 trillion, leading to a downgrade in the U.S. credit rating by Moody's [2]. - The Senate is expected to pass a bill that may save $500 billion by using alternative calculations that do not account for the extension of the 2017 tax cuts [4]. Group 3: Shift to European and Other Markets - European bonds, particularly German and French debt, are becoming more attractive to investors as U.S. deficits expand, with Germany maintaining a debt-to-GDP ratio below 100% [4]. - The market for German bonds is expected to strengthen, creating better opportunities for equity markets and increasing the issuance of risk-free German and pan-European bonds [4]. Group 4: Long-term Trends in Investment Behavior - Foreign investors are reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings as part of a long-term structural trend towards diversification rather than a sudden withdrawal [5]. - Concerns over U.S. risk premiums are anticipated to lead to a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, as investors demand higher returns for holding U.S. debt [6].