高盛也给Circle“泼冷水”：估值过高、三重因素令利润率承压，但跨境支付或是突破点

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage on Circle with a neutral rating and a target price of $83, indicating a potential downside of 54% from the current stock price, citing high valuation despite strong business prospects [1][2] Valuation and Market Position - Circle, as the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, holds a unique position in the market, being the only pure crypto-native company, with a market capitalization of $40 billion and a 25% share of the stablecoin market [3] - The forward P/E ratio of approximately 145 is significantly higher than the industry average of about 35, leading Goldman Sachs to maintain a cautious outlook despite Circle's strong growth potential [2][4] Growth Projections - Goldman Sachs forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% for USDC supply from 2024 to 2027, with expected revenue and adjusted EPS growth rates of 26% and 37%, respectively [1][3] - The anticipated growth is driven by partnerships, particularly with Binance, which has already seen a $6 billion increase in USDC balances since the partnership began [3] Profitability Pressures - Goldman Sachs identifies three key factors that may pressure Circle's profitability: interest rate cuts, competition from yield-bearing products, and rising distribution costs [2][4][5] - A projected 25 basis point cut in interest rates could lead to a 5.5% revenue impact and a 10.5% impact on adjusted EPS, with expectations of multiple rate cuts in the coming years [4] Market Opportunities - Circle is exploring new growth avenues beyond cryptocurrency trading, particularly in cross-border payments and fiat currency transactions, with a potential market size of $30 billion to $50 billion [2][6] - The cross-border payment sector is seen as a significant opportunity for disruption, with high transaction costs and inefficient infrastructure, although Circle's cross-border payment network is still in its early stages [6]