BMY Loses 16.3% YTD: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Bristol Myers (BMY) has faced a challenging first half of 2025, with shares down 16.3% year to date, underperforming both the industry and the S&P 500, primarily due to pipeline setbacks and generic competition despite some positive regulatory updates [1][3]. Financial Performance - The first-quarter performance exceeded expectations, leading to an increase in annual revenue guidance; however, the stock has declined since then, reflecting broader market concerns and skepticism about growth prospects [4]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 EPS has decreased from $6.87 to $6.76 over the past 60 days, while the estimate for 2026 has also dipped from $6.07 to $6.04 [18]. Generic Competition - BMY's legacy portfolio is negatively impacted by generic competition affecting key drugs such as Revlimid, Pomalyst, Sprycel, and Abraxane, along with the redesign of U.S. Medicare Part D [5]. - Sales of Eliquis, a major revenue contributor, fell by 4% in the first quarter due to the Medicare Part D redesign, although sales are expected to rise in the second half of 2025 as the coverage gap is eliminated [6]. New Drug Developments - BMY is focusing on newer drugs like Opdualag, Reblozyl, and Breyanzi to stabilize revenue as legacy drugs face competition; Reblozyl has shown strong growth since its approval [7]. - The immuno-oncology drug Opdivo has also seen solid revenue growth driven by volume increases, and recent approvals for new formulations and treatment regimens are expected to enhance its market position [9][10]. Pipeline Setbacks - Recent pipeline setbacks have negatively impacted BMY's stock, including disappointing results from the late-stage ODYSSEY-HCM study for Camzyos and the ARISE study for Cobenfy, which did not meet primary endpoints [13][14]. Debt and Valuation - BMY's strategy of acquiring companies has led to a high debt ratio, with long-term debt at $46.1 billion against cash and equivalents of $12.1 billion as of March 31, 2025 [15]. - The company's shares currently trade at a price/earnings ratio of 7.24x forward earnings, below its historical mean and the large-cap pharma industry's average [16]. Investment Outlook - Despite challenges, BMY's newer drugs and collaborations are expected to stabilize revenue and diversify its portfolio; however, the impact of generic competition remains a significant concern [20]. - The attractive dividend yield of 5.35% is a compelling reason for existing investors to maintain their positions in the stock [20].