关税战，特朗普会输吗？美国经济要崩盘？

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant impact of Trump's tariff policies, which have raised the average tariff in the U.S. to its highest level in a century, reminiscent of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 [1] - The historical context of tariffs is explored, comparing Trump's actions to those of President Hoover, suggesting that the consequences may not be as severe this time due to differing political influences within Trump's administration [1] - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing low unemployment rates, with figures below 4%, indicating a strong economic performance despite concerns about potential downturns due to tariffs [3][4] Group 2 - Inflation in the U.S. has been primarily driven by fiscal policies during Biden's early presidency, with significant deficits contributing to increased consumer spending and subsequent inflation [4] - The Federal Reserve's response to inflation has been criticized for being delayed, with a recognition that aggressive measures should have been taken earlier to control rising prices [5] - Economic growth in the U.S. is expected to slow down due to the impact of tariffs, with projections suggesting a decrease in growth from 2.8% to around 2.5% [6][7] Group 3 - The article highlights a shift in global financial dynamics, with the U.S. national debt reaching $35.46 trillion, equivalent to 125% of GDP, and a decline in the dollar's share of global reserves from 71.5% in 2011 to 57.8% in 2024 [9] - Despite concerns about the safety of U.S. debt, it is argued that the dollar remains dominant due to the size of the U.S. financial market, which constitutes a significant portion of global equity markets [12][13] - The potential for China to emerge as a competitor in the global financial landscape is noted, with increasing interest from investors in Chinese markets [13] Group 4 - China's economic data shows a 2.4% increase in total goods imports and exports in the first four months of 2025, with a notable 13.4% growth in consumer goods manufacturing investment [15][16] - The article suggests that China's export performance may decline in the second quarter due to tariff impacts, but the flexibility of Chinese exporters is expected to mitigate severe downturns [16] - Recommendations for China to stimulate domestic consumption include direct cash transfers or consumption vouchers, which have shown effectiveness in previous instances [18][20]