C Clears 2025 Fed Stress Test: Make Investment or Still Wait?

Core Insights - Citigroup Inc. has successfully passed the Federal Reserve's 2025 stress test, allowing the bank to return excess capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, indicating strong capital resilience during severe economic downturns [1][2][9]. Capital and Financial Health - Citigroup's common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio is projected at 10.4%, significantly above the minimum requirement of 4.5%, reflecting robust capital health [3][8]. - The bank currently offers a dividend yield of 2.65%, higher than competitors Bank of America and Wells Fargo, and has a payout ratio of 35% [4][8]. - Citigroup's board has authorized a $20 billion share repurchase plan, with $1.75 billion already repurchased in Q1 2025, indicating confidence in its financial position [7][8]. Business Restructuring and Operational Efficiency - Citigroup is undergoing a significant restructuring, including a plan to eliminate 20,000 jobs to streamline operations and reduce costs [10][11]. - The bank aims to lower its expenses to below $53.4 billion in 2025, down from $53.9 billion in 2024 [12]. - Citigroup is focusing on core operations by exiting non-core markets, including consumer banking in 14 markets across Asia and EMEA, to allocate capital towards higher-return segments [13][15]. Revenue and Market Performance - Citigroup anticipates improved performance in its Markets and Banking segments, projecting mid to high-single-digit revenue growth year-over-year for Markets and mid-single-digit growth for Investment Banking [16]. - The bank's net interest income (NII) for Q1 2025 was reported at $14 billion, a 4% increase from the previous year, benefiting from lower funding costs [17][19]. - Citigroup shares have outperformed the industry, gaining 21.7% over the past six months, compared to 17.7% for the industry and lower gains for peers [20]. Valuation Analysis - Citigroup is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.13X, below the industry average of 14.53X, indicating it is undervalued relative to peers [22][24]. - The bank's stock is seen as a potential value opportunity for long-term investors, despite near-term uncertainties due to ongoing restructuring and macroeconomic challenges [26][30].