GDG(SH:600098) Zheng Quan Zhi Xing·2025-06-30 16:51Core Viewpoint - Guangzhou Development is positioned as a comprehensive energy platform under the jurisdiction of the Guangzhou municipal government, demonstrating stable performance and a commitment to high dividends, with a buy rating assigned for investment potential [1][2]. Investment Highlights - The company has established a diversified energy industry system, including power generation, energy logistics, gas, new energy, energy storage, and energy finance, which enhances its operational stability [2]. - As of the end of 2024, the total installed power capacity is projected to reach 10.26 GW, comprising 3.14 GW from coal, 2.34 GW from gas, 2.44 GW from wind, and 2.35 GW from solar [2]. - The company has maintained stable growth in net profit since 2017, with a forecasted net profit of 1.732 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.73% [2]. - The company has a consistent dividend policy, with a dividend payout ratio around 50%, and a projected dividend ratio of 54.67% for 2024, resulting in an estimated dividend yield of 4.21% [2]. Sector Analysis - The thermal power segment, primarily located in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, is expected to show performance elasticity due to falling coal prices, despite a decline in utilization hours [3]. - The average spot price of 5500 kcal thermal coal has decreased by 214 yuan per ton since Q2 2025, which is anticipated to positively impact the company's thermal power performance [3]. - The new energy segment is rapidly expanding, with plans to reach an installed capacity of 8 GW by the end of 2025, contributing to increased power generation [3]. - The company’s new energy projects are primarily located in regions with high electricity prices, although the electricity prices for wind and solar are projected to decline in 2024 [3]. Gas Business Performance - The Guangzhou Gas Group, a subsidiary, is the sole entity responsible for high-pressure gas pipeline construction and natural gas procurement in Guangzhou, with stable growth in gas sales volume [4]. - The company is expected to achieve a pipeline gas sales volume of 2.166 billion cubic meters in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 26.18% [4]. - The completion of the LNG emergency peak-shaving gas source station in 2023 and the second phase of the Zhujiang LNG power plant are expected to enhance gas supply capacity [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.849 billion, 2.120 billion, and 2.373 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.74%, 14.70%, and 11.91% [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 12, 10, and 9 times for the years 2025 to 2027 [4].